The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years | Manifold

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years

5

90Ṁ190

2028

42%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to my subjective opinion of the state of the art / expert consensus. (I don't have any better ideas)

(If you think this market is poorly written/specified/has a mistake, tell me, and I may edit it within the first couple days)

Operationalizing a claim from https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither (hacker news comments)

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