Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk. Will he be too late? Resolves to whichever is first: 1. This market resolves (YES) (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708)2: There are 100 people alive on Mars (NO)

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 80% chance (39 traders, as of Aug 24, 2026).

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

MANIFOLD

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Ṁ1kṀ4k

2050

80%

chance

ALL

Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk. Will he be too late?

Resolves to whichever is first:

1. This market resolves (YES)

2: There are 100 people alive on Mars (NO)

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1,000

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bought Ṁ50 YES

@NivlacM still stand by this

Only downside to this market is how long it's going to take to be showered with all your mana.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk.

Does he really think this will help with AI risk?

I just want to say that if Elon Musk really does think that going to Mars will protect us from rogue AI that's his dumbest idea I've heard on this specific subject yet- even dumber than his "iF WE jUSt MaKe AI reALLy cuRIoUS iT woN'T WAnt TO eAt HumaNITy" idea.