Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?
Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?
9
280Ṁ2142100
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Criteria
Must be classified as a new species, previously unknown
Must be found outside of earth (but can originate from earth)
Must be capable of making a person sick and killing them
I'll resolve when the first death occurs, or if the disease is eliminated I'll assess whether it could plausibly kill a typical 80 year old.
I may change the criteria in response to good suggestions.
I will not trade on this market.
More people means more evolution:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ25 NO12mo
No more than a one-in-a-million chance, and only figuratively that high, not literally.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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