MANIFOLD
In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations?
17
Ṁ1.1kṀ387
2030
62%
Other
27%
Attention is all you need
11%
Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition

Resolves to the option with the highest total (aka cumulative) number of citations on 1/1/2030 according to google scholar.

Papers must be about new AI techniques. Not other topics like applications or history. Meta-Analyses don't count either.

Market context
Technology
AI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Alignment
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?
Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?
62% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
75% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
60% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
72% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2030?
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

Is this citations during 2030 or cumulative evaluated at 12/31/2030 (or 1/1/2030)?

@Mactuary it's the cumulative number of citations on 1/1/2030 (which is the market close date)

Attention is all you need has 120k citations on google scholar

yea, but resnet has 200k

Dang!

bought Ṁ1 YES

you did not know?

Nah I'm not actually that across the literature. Hence the market!

it's actually a great thing to bet on, that if attention will have more citations than resnet in 2030

People are also trading

Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?
Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?
62% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
75% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
60% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
72% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2030?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy