MANIFOLD
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ195
2027
50%
Magnushammer: A Transformer-Based Approach to Premise Selection
50%
AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery
8%
llmstep: LLM proofstep suggestions in Lean
6%
AI for Mathematics: A Cognitive Science Perspective

The papers will eventually be availalble here , for now you can see them on OpenReview here. I will resolve by searching the paper title on Google Scholar on the close date.

Market context
Machine Learning
Idea Futures
Academia
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
61% chance
Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations?
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
36% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
35% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
45% chance
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
15% chance
Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?
37
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
72% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy