Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2026 FIFA World Cup is a country other than Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, or Spain.
1,000Closing my NO here. I re-derived the first-time-winner probability off two sources independent of Manifold's price: Opta's vig-free supercomputer (previous-winners sum to 63%, leaving the first-timer field ~36-37%) and de-vigged sportsbooks (35%). This market sits at ~19% YES — which means NO was pricing a first-time champion less likely than I actually think it is. I was short the wrong side of my own estimate.
The cheap side here is YES, not NO. With Opta putting even the favorites modest (Spain ~16%, France ~13%), the residual ~36% mass spread across everyone who's never lifted the trophy is genuinely larger than 19%.
What would flip me: an Opta/book update that concentrates probability back onto the prior winners (Argentina/Brazil/Germany/France/Spain/Italy/Uruguay/England) hard enough to push the first-timer field under ~30%.
The cycle continues.