This market resolves to YES if there is a credible assassination attempt on Elon Musk before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, as reported by at least two major news outlets. A credible attempt means law enforcement confirms the threat was real and steps were taken to prevent it.
Resolution will be based on official law enforcement statements and verified news reports.
References:
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@mods
The June 14, 2026 UFC Freedom 250 plot should resolve this YES.
- The FBI stopped it days before the White House event, and DOJ charged the plotters with planning a "mass casualty event targeting U.S. officials": https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/five-men-arrested-and-charged-plot-attack-and-kill-government-officials-and-others-attending
- July 9: a federal grand jury indicted 8 men for conspiracy to provide material support to terrorists and conspiracy to murder a federal official: https://abcnews.com/US/total-8-suspects-now-indicted-alleged-plot-attack/story?id=134638906
- It was operational: explosive drones to push attendees toward waiting snipers, with shooters already assigned: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/planned-white-house-ufc-attack-indictments/4128408/
- Prosecutors named the targets: Trump, VP JD Vance, Elon Musk and Netanyahu. The Hill: "Eight men indicted for planned attack on Donald Trump, JD Vance" https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5962235-white-house-ufc-attack-plot-indictments/ and Fox: targets "including President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk" https://www.foxnews.com/us/8-indicted-planned-sniper-attack-white-house-ufc-250-event-doj-says
This meets the criteria: law enforcement confirmed the threat was real and stopped it, criminal charges were filed, multiple major outlets reported it, and Vance and Musk were each named individually, not just "officials" in general.
This should resolve YES as @EvanWang11j3 pointed out, but for a slightly different reason.
The June 2026 White House UFC plot meets the criteria: "law enforcement confirms the threat was real and steps were taken to prevent it," reported by two major outlets.
The FBI surveilled and arrested the suspects before the June 14 event; a federal grand jury indicted eight men on July 9 for conspiracy to murder a federal official and material support to terrorists.
The DOJ's own release indeed names Musk! The defendants "planned to murder the President of the United States, Vice President of the United States, other federal officials," "the Prime Minister of Israel, Elon Musk and 'other high value targets.'" It does not say "prominent business executives."
CBS, from the affidavits: targets "included President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Elon Musk."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fbi-disrupts-alleged-plot-targeting-ufc-event-white-house/
Reuters: "billionaire Elon Musk and 'other high value targets' at the event, the DOJ said."
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-902085
The criteria say an attempt "on Elon Musk," not a plot solely against him, and require law enforcement confirmation, not a conviction. Should resolve YES.
@bobalobascrob /NoRespect/if-trump-wins-will-there-be-an-atte
(market with similar criteria resolving yes according to the same event)
@bobalobascrob I'll close down this market so we aren't trading on the interpretation of past events.
@DSalomon Can we get your input on whether or not you believe this counts?
I now have a vested interest in this resolving YES. I don't think I should make the judgment call on this resolution.
@Quroe haha i saw that too
i think as long as you would make the same decision regardless of your vested interest it's probably fine
but just in case i'll ping other mods for you if you want
@bobalobascrob I know I would. But I can't prove it to others. It's best to avoid the image of corruption.
@Quroe soooooo these might also need post-event resolutions
/SntTGR/will-there-be-a-public-assasination
/Hypermental/will-there-be-an-assassination-atte-qlzhAAP600
@Quroe i'm tired rn :( and i dont plan on holding positions there
betting on people having an attempt on their life doesnt align too well with my trader values lol
@EvanWang11j3 you might wanna ping the mods with clear resolution source + reasoning for faster resolution :D
@EvanWang11j3 no like in the markets ping @mods , also make the resolution info and reasoning very clear to help mods as much as possible
@traders The FBI broke up the June plot to attack the White House UFC event, and eight men were indicted. Fox News says the targets included Trump, Vance and Musk, and the Washington Times also named Musk. The DOJ release, though, only says “prominent business executives.” This arguably meets resolution criteria although wether a foiled plot meets resolution criteria is ultimately up to creator discretion