If the US only conducts air/missile/drone strikes from afar and/or support proxies on the ground without using their own military then this will resolve to NO. It only resolves YES if US United States Armed Forces combat arms are on the ground. CIA saboteurs or agitators don't count. It has to unambiguously be US military.
If the US does not clearly attack in 2025 this resolves N/A regardless of whether there are US troops on Venezuelan territory or not
If the linked market below resolves Yes then for the purposes of my market the US has attacked Venezuela and my market can no longer resolve N/A:
https://manifold.markets/market/military-conflict-between-the-us-an#507ufumbvgg
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): US Special Forces would count as United States Armed Forces combat arms for the purposes of this market.
Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The linked market (https://manifold.markets/market/military-conflict-between-the-us-an) has resolved YES, meaning this market can no longer resolve N/A.
Creator will wait approximately one week before resolving to allow time for any reports of US Special Forces presence on the ground to emerge.
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait a few more days to check if any evidence emerges that US Special Forces were on Venezuelan territory before the operation. As it currently stands, the market will resolve NO since there doesn't appear to be evidence of US forces on Venezuelan soil.
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is waiting a few more days to check if any evidence emerges that US Special Forces were on Venezuelan territory before the operation (specifically before January 3rd, 2026). As it currently stands, the market will resolve NO since there doesn't appear to be evidence of US forces on Venezuelan soil - the January 3rd operation appears to have been the first deployment of Special Forces, and any prior US presence appears to have been covert CIA personnel (which don't count per the original criteria).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ418 | |
| 2 | Ṁ253 | |
| 3 | Ṁ236 | |
| 4 | Ṁ215 | |
| 5 | Ṁ214 |
People are also trading
Holy shit. It actually happened for real. US Special Forces have captured Maduro and he is indicted in NYC. Multiple Venezuelan casualties reported.
For fuck sake I both feel smarter than all of you and dumber at the same time.
I will wait a few more days just in case any evidence comes to light that US Special forces were on Venezuelan territory before the operation today. But as it stands this will resolve NO since there doesn't seem to be any such evidence.
@CornCasting creator of a Venezuela's military invasion market declare that he has some information:
https://manifold.markets/DrewReynolds/will-the-us-military-invade-venezue
@CornCasting oh I am blind. You are probably now speaking about December's unconfirmed drone strike, not about the January's recent kidnapping . My being hallucinating, lets assume if you ask about December - answer is in December no single evidence of any boot (civil or military) on Venezuela's soil. But if you wish to learn about January Law inforcement operation - ask Drew Reynolds
https://manifold.markets/market/military-conflict-between-the-us-an has resolved YES. As stated this market can no longer resolve NA.
I'll wait till next week or so to resolve in case there comes some report that US Special Forces were on the field. But I think this market is accurate and there's only like a 3% chance since it seems to have only been a drone strike conducted by the CIA.
@CornCasting Are you referring to the claimed by Trump events of December 2025 or strikes on January 2026?
News reports claim that December-November 2025 incidents at various Venezuelan factories and infrastructure sites were actually covert American operations. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan government has officially attributed them to normal accidents rather than U.S. sabotage - there is a prediction market specifically for this https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/which-explosions-in-venezuela-will -
which
@1bets Jan 2026 operation that involved US Special Forces on the field. It is so close to December 31 that I am just waiting a bit to see if any evidence emerges that US Special Forces were on Venezuelan territory ahead of Jan 3rd - somewhere perhaps in a secret forward base.
I don't think they were. Most evidence seems to suggest Special Forces were only deployed on January 3rd and any existing support already on Venezuelan soil before then were covert CIA, so they would not count.
Looks like the US will for sure attack at this stage (Or at least >50%)? Just a question if they will only be airstrikes now: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312722642.html
Also FAA issues temporary flight restriction over Ceiba, Puerto Rico, designating it as ‘National Defence Airspace'
@1bets Too long ago and I don't see any value in looking up the article. You cold likely find it an article easily enough where Marco calls the Miami Herald article completely made up and fake
@bens Updated that it has to be United States Armed Forces combat arms. CIA saboteurs or agitators do not count.
US Special Forces would certainly count.
@AlexanderTheGreater Correct. Updated resolution criteria. Has to be United States Armed Forces.
If boots are really sexy I'll think about it...