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MANIFOLD
When will Starship flight 12 happen?
43
Ṁ2kṀ31k
2027
May 14, 2026
84%
Before June 2026
97%
Before August 2026
98.2%
Before October 2026
98.5%
Before December 2026

Day of the 12th test flight of the Starship rocket. Let's try Manifold's date question format for this one.

Even if it explodes immediately after liftoff, that still counts for this question.

Info about past tests:

Flight 7 was 2025-01-16

Flight 8 was 2025-03-06

Flight 9 was 2025-05-27

Flight 10 was 2025-08-26

Flight 11 was 2025-10-13

I sometimes bet on my own questions.

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The last 33 engine static fire was aborted not planned to be short.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFn8h4RZgwI

20min 20 sec

We kicked out early. All teams triage alerts. Prepare for offloads.

Today we aborted our second attempt of the B19 full count static fire. We actually had another pad abort on the diverter. We made it through engine startup and then ultimately lost some of our sensors on one of the ramp manifolds. It basically said that the manifold pressure was lower than we believe it probably was and it kicked us out at T + 1.88 seconds.

It is just tough as there are some things that are hard to test ahead of time. So the diverter you can test as much as you want but you can't obviously test for what theoretical vibe and environment when the engines are turned on.

@CommanderZander Before April 2026 can resolve thanks

Before October can resolve @CommanderZander thanks

Will it be possible to add other intermediate dates to this question? I.e. "Before January" would be useful right now.

@OlegEterevsky I agree that would be cool, but i can't find any way to add answers to this question. I imagine doing that is not currently supported for the 'Date Independent' question type.

@CommanderZander "before August" can resolve.