Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, the Trump administration initiates legal action resulting in the arrest of a sitting U.S. Supreme Court Justice. The arrest must be publicly confirmed by reputable news organizations. If no such arrest occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

As of May 1, 2025, the Trump administration has intensified its scrutiny of the judiciary. Notably, Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Hannah Dugan was arrested for allegedly aiding an undocumented immigrant's escape, a move perceived by critics as an attempt to intimidate the judiciary. (theatlantic.com)