
Donald Trump life expectancy (in binary)
4
Ṁ160Ṁ2982198
1%
128
99%
64
7%
32
83%
16
46%
8
50%
4
50%
2
47%
1
50%
0.5 (1/2)
50%
0.25 (1/4)
50%
0.125 (1/8)
50%
0.0625 (1/16)
50%
0.03125 (1/32)
50%
0.015625 (1/64)
50%
0.0078125 (1/128)
50%
0.00390625 (1/256)
For the sake of this question, Trump was born on June 14th, 1946 at 10:54 AM ET
A year is defined as 365.25 days.
The market for k = 2^n resolves as
Floor ([Trump's lifespan (in years)] (mod 2k) ÷ k)
Example calculation:
Suppose Trump lives until 3/5/2035.

That would be
88.723 years which in binary is
64 + 16 + 8 + 0.5 + 0.125 + 0.0625 + 0.03125 (1011000.10111001 in binary)
so the markets would resolve
128 - NO
64 - YES
32 - NO
16 - YES
8 - YES
4 - NO
2 - NO
1 - NO
0.5 - YES
0.25 - NO
0.125 - YES
0.0625 - YES
0.03125 - YES
0.015625 - NO
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?
93% chance
When will Donald Trump die?
On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
Joe Biden life expectancy (in binary)
Will Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2030?
48% chance
Will Donald Trump still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
59% chance
Trump post-Presidency Life Expectancy (10% = 1 Year)
34% chance
Donald Trump alive on January 20, 2029
84% chance
When will Trump die?
In which year will Donald Trump die?