Resolution criteria

This market contains independent multiple-choice options regarding the recovery attempts during SpaceX's Starship Flight 14. Each option will resolve to YES or NO independently based on official mission telemetry and video.

• Booster Catch is attempted and succeeds:

  • YES if the Super Heavy booster returns to the launch site and is successfully caught by the tower arms ("Mechazilla").

  • NO if no catch is attempted or if the attempt fails (e.g., crash, explosion before securing, or missed catch).

• Starship Catch is attempted and succeeds:

  • YES if the Starship upper stage returns and is successfully caught by the tower arms.

  • NO if no catch is attempted (e.g., standard ocean splashdown) or if the attempt fails.

• Both Starship and Booster Catches are attempted and succeed:

  • YES, only if both of the above catch conditions are met successfully during Flight 14.

  • NO if otherwise.

Verification Sources:

• Official SpaceX live stream and broadcast archives on SpaceX.com or X (@SpaceX).

• Secondary reporting from NASASpaceflight or the Wikipedia List of Starship Launches.

Market Close Date: The market will remain open until Flight 14 begins. (Current Market closing date will be adjusted to then.) However, under the rare circumstances in which attempts to catch both the booster and the starship are publicly canceled before the flight, and everyone agrees, the market will be resolved no earlier.

Background

SpaceX’s Starship program has traditionally used ocean splashdowns for both the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage as a safer way to test reentry, guidance, and landing systems. Over time, SpaceX has begun trying to catch the Super Heavy booster with the launch tower’s “Mechazilla” arms (e.g., success in flight 5), while Starship itself has continued to make ocean splashdowns due to its higher landing difficulty.

Recent flights leading up to Flight 14 have included multiple software and control system upgrades focused on improving precision during descent, engine relight reliability, and real-time guidance during landing attempts (as of 2026-06-29). In Flight 13 (~July), they will be testing new software for both booster and Starship, both of which are planned to make soft ocean entries. If all goes well, on flight 14, they will attempt to catch both, a milestone in Space Exploration due to reusability!