In June 2024 SpaceX demonstrated successful descent for both first and second stages of the Starship rocket. The potential next stage would be to try to land one or both stages.
This market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX manages to land the second stage of Starship rocket after an orbital or suborbital flight. The spacecraft has to be landed on land and in one piece. It should presumably be captured by the launch tower, but other ways of landing on land or on a barge would also qualify. The rocket can sustain some damage, but the payload has to stay intact. The rocket also should stay in one piece for at least an hour after the landing.
I do not bet on my own questions.
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/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land
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So . . . if Starship 40, which is still basically intact ("in one piece") and currently at sea, is successfully brought ashore, doesn't that count as "landed on land"?
I grant a Starship having a soft direct splashdown on the ocean, then floating for weeks until towed to land, was not a sequence anyone expected. But it sure seems to meet the definition of the transitive verb "land" as defined in the dictionaries I've looked at.
@SEE No, it clearly landed in the ocean. Landing is part of the flight. What happens to a spacecraft (or aircraft) later is irrelevant. Like if an aircraft lands on an airfield, and then is tugged into a hangar, you wouldn't say that it landed in a hangar.
@OlegEterevsky The problem with your analogy is that "to tug from an airfield into a hangar" is not one of the definitions of the English verb "land", but "to arrive on land from the sea" is.
Two sample definitions of the verb "land":
Cambridge Dictionary: to arrive on land from the sea
Wiktionary: To arrive on land, especially a shore or dock, from a body of water.
When Starship 40 set down on the ocean in July, that was a landing in the sense of the end of the flight. It is entirely true that how it is moved along the surface of the Earth afterward does not change where it ended its flight.
But if Starship 40 is brought ashore, that will be a separate landing, as an arrival on land at the end of a sea voyage. That landing will (necessarily) be "on land", and it will be "after an orbital or suborbital flight" of Starship 40 (though not as the immediate conclusion of that suborbital flight).
Anyway. I will take it as read from your response above that for purposes of resolving this question you are only using the "to (cause to) arrive on the ground or other surface after moving down through the air" / "To descend to a surface, especially from the air" definition of "land", and accordingly will not resolve "yes" when/if Starship 40 is landed ashore.
@SEE This meaning of the word "land" is usually only applied to people who come ashore. The boat docks or berths.
Some options around April 1 would be cool
@SimonWestlake I'll add new options when some interval exceeds 30-40%. Options around April currently have relatively low probability.
Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket