MANIFOLD
Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
113
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

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Resolving NO

Copied from the brains trust on the New years resolution call where we discussed this:

Lawrence livermore national lab demonstrated it, but it's about private companies

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/06/us-scientists-achieve-net-energy-gain-second-time-fusion-reaction

the Guardian US scientists achieve net energy gain for second time in a fusion r...

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility achieved the feat using lasers to fuse two atoms

LLNL experiment was mostly just an impractical test to see if it was possible without any real commerical viability (300 MJ of energy was used to fire 2 MJ into an experiment to produce 3 MJ), so it makes sense that no private company would go for it

Can't resolve yet. Want to extend close date?

predictedNO

Is this about the energy that goes into the plasma or the total input energy?

predictedYES

@Daniel_MC Great clarifying question. The energy that goes into the plasma is what I am looking at. This is likely way simpler to calculate and communicate.

@CharlesCarriere awesome thanks for clarifying

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