Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?
56
Ṁ1kṀ14k2040
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some people are optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
whoops
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?
1% chance
In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?
42% chance
Will there be a fusion reactor generating electricity commercially by the end of 2035?
26% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
22% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?
16% chance
What will be the next fusion project to reach Q=1 scientific breakeven?
Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
72% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045?
65% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?
8% chance