Will risk from misaligned AI be popularly perceived to be greater at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | Manifold

Will risk from misaligned AI be popularly perceived to be greater at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

32

1kṀ8923

2028

89%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027).

Resolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close or if AI has killed / subjugated 95%+ of humans. ;)

Carson's Important Markets

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?

In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause?

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

Related questions

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?

In 2025, what % of EA lists "AI risk" as their top cause?

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will >90% of Elon re/tweets/replies on 19 December 2025 be about AI risk?

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy