Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

1kṀ4599

Dec 31

27%

chance

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This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.
This could manifest in many different ways:
- a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes
- a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI
- private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down.
- governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.
These events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc.
Other reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count.

Feel free to ask more questions about the criteria. I will not trade on this market.

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6 Comments

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I'd like to trade on this market but I'm not a huge fan of the criteria, I would have liked discrete thresholds for how much specific stocks or valuations need to drop. It feels overly ambiguous right now.

@SaviorofPlant that's fine !! there are many similar markets with more deterministic criteria. i dont like doing specific numbers because the bubble could take many many forms that cant be synthesized into a few stock price charts

Maybe private capital invested in small fake vaporware startups? I don't think larger startups and megacorps are really in a "bubble" -- the AI value is real when it's applied effectively in corporate settings.

like there could definitely be a bubble in vaporware startups that happens in 2026 and then bursts. But would that really be the "AI bubble"?

@Dulaman if the media and public widely calls it that, yes

@256 Then yes I think large parts of the media and public will call anything that looks even remotely like an "AI bubble pop" by that name, in order to fit the narrative they want. Even if it's nonsense.