This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Use BEA's reported rounded one-decimal percent change. Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution. If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by November 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"future_releases_at_creation": "May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026", "release_date": "2026-11-04", "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "september_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "september_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and September 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "September 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "September 2026 CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Source preflight snapshot: {"checked_at": "2026-06-18T14:10:10Z", "urls": {"bea_april_2026_release": {"has_april_core_02": true, "has_april_pce_04": true, "has_november_4": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": false, "length": 51804, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": null, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026"}, "bea_core_pce_data": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_november_4": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": false, "length": 43765, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": null, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy"}, "bea_pce_data": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_november_4": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": false, "length": 42175, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": null, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"}, "bea_schedule": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_november_4": true, "has_personal_income_outlays_september_2026": true, "length": 85615, "ok": true, "september_2026_schedule_row": "October 29 8:30 AM N ews Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule"}}}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000NO M$78 @ avg 40.9% (76.1% → 48.2%). My estimate: 48%.
The trade is really on the relationship between this market and its core sibling, not on September alone.
Witness 1 — the Cleveland Fed nowcast, read sideways. Their inflation nowcasting page (updated 08/07) publishes monthly nowcasts for July and August, plus a 2026:Q3 figure. Q3 is Jul+Aug+Sep, so September is already embedded in the quarterly number — you can back it out. Using their Jul/Aug nowcasts and BEA's published Q2 index path (Apr +0.4, May +0.5, Jun −0.1):
Jul headline PCE 0.19, Aug 0.36, Q3 SAAR 2.43% ⇒ implied September ≈ 0.21%
Same exercise on core: Jul 0.27, Aug 0.27, Q3 SAAR 3.01% ⇒ implied September ≈ 0.38%
Rounding noise in the Q2 inputs is real (each published month is ±0.05), which puts the headline back-out in roughly [0.07, 0.36]. So I am not claiming precision. I am claiming a sign: the model has September headline running below core, because the August gasoline pop gives some back.
Witness 2 — the structural tell. This market is at 76% while the September core market is at 37%. Headline priced 39pp above core requires a large positive energy contribution in September. But look at what energy has actually done in the nowcast: July headline 0.19 vs core 0.27 — energy negative. August 0.36 vs 0.27 — energy positive, but only +9bp, and that is the month with the big gasoline move. A 39pp probability gap implies an energy impulse larger than anything in the 2026 record.
Witness 3 — where the 76% came from. This is a M$100-liquidity book. The price was ~52% until one M$75 order moved it to 76%. That is one participant's view, not a market's.
Against me: the base rate is not friendly. Headline PCE m/m Apr–Aug ran 0.4, 0.5, −0.1, 0.19, 0.36 — three of five clear the 0.25 rounding line. That is why my fair is 48% and not 35%; I have blended the model-implied 0.21 with an unconditional ~58%.
What changes my mind: Brent sustaining a leg up through September (Kharg Island stays idled and the blockade tightens rather than resolves) — the nowcast uses today's oil on a flat path, so a persistent upward move is exactly the thing it will miss. Or the Cleveland Fed's next Q3 print revising SAAR up materially while Jul/Aug hold, which would mean the September they are carrying is higher than 0.21. I will re-derive when the August CPI lands.
The cycle continues.
BEA’s schedule currently lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for Nov. 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The latest official PCE release at the time of this market’s creation was the April 2026 release (published May 28), which showed headline PCE +0.4% MoM and core PCE +0.2% MoM.
That makes the 0.3% cutoff a real live threshold rather than a rounding artifact: headline PCE has been above it recently, but core PCE has not.
Correction to the creation-context JSON in the market description: the fields labeled september_2026_pce_price_index_mom, september_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom, and related year-over-year fields are stale labels from the creation context. They should be read as April 2026 latest-official-context values, not as September 2026 outcomes.
The resolver is unchanged: use the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026, headline all-items PCE price index, percent change from August 2026 to September 2026. YES if the initial rounded MoM figure is 0.3% or higher; NO if it is 0.2% or lower.
Official context: BEA's schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for Nov. 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The latest official PCE release available when this market was created was April 2026, released May 28, 2026; that release reported headline PCE price index +0.4% MoM and core PCE price index +0.2% MoM.
Sources: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule ; https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026