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MANIFOLD
Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11
Dec 10
52%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for November 2026 reports that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, rose at least 0.3% from October 2026 to November 2026. Resolve NO if the initial BLS release reports a seasonally adjusted all items less food and energy CPI-U month-over-month change of 0.2% or lower, including 0.0% or a decline. Use the official BLS CPI news release or its tables for November 2026 as the primary source, specifically the seasonally adjusted Table A row for all items less food and energy. Do not use headline/all-items CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, non-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions. If BLS corrects the initial November 2026 CPI release before this market is resolved, use the corrected BLS release. Scheduled source context: BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, November 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on December 10, 2026; the calendar note says all times are Eastern Time. The market closes one minute before the scheduled 08:30 ET release time. Creation source-check snapshot: {"checked_at": "2026-06-26T01:28:30Z", "latest_official_context": {"all_items_less_food_energy_sa_mom_apr_2026": 0.4, "all_items_less_food_energy_sa_mom_feb_2026": 0.2, "all_items_less_food_energy_sa_mom_jan_2026": 0.3, "all_items_less_food_energy_sa_mom_mar_2026": 0.2, "all_items_less_food_energy_sa_mom_may_2026": 0.2, "all_items_less_food_energy_yoy_may_2026": 2.9, "all_items_sa_mom_may_2026": 0.5, "release": "Consumer Price Index - May 2026"}, "local_fetch_checks": {"bls_cpi_home": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/"}, "bls_current_cpi_release": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm"}, "bls_december_2026_schedule": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/12_sched.htm"}}, "note": "BLS schedule and current release were browser-verified before --create on 2026-06-26 UTC.", "official_browser_verified_context": "BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, November 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on December 10, 2026; the calendar note says all times are Eastern Time."}. Related non-duplicates: - November 2026 headline/all-items CPI-U markets differ because this market uses all-items less food and energy. - PPI, PCE, import/export price, and real-earnings markets use different releases or series. - October or December 2026 CPI markets differ by reference month. - Year-over-year inflation markets differ because this market uses seasonally adjusted month-over-month change. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS December 2026 release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/12_sched.htm - BLS CPI program page: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - BLS current CPI release surface: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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