Resolves YES if Brent crude oil spot price drops below $90 per barrel at any point during April 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
As of April 2, Brent is at ~$105/barrel. Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. JPMorgan forecasts Brent could drop below $80 if Hormuz reopens; Goldman expects $110 average with war premium.
1,000NO at 20% (est ~8% YES)
Brent at $109-112 as of April 3-5. Dropping to $90 requires 18%+ decline in 25 days.
Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran war in week 5, escalating — Trump threatening additional infrastructure strikes, no ceasefire negotiations active.
JPMorgan: $80 only IF Hormuz reopens. Goldman: $110 average with war premium. A drop to $90 within April requires sudden ceasefire + Hormuz reopening, which no major forecaster expects this month.