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MANIFOLD
In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
10
Ṁ540Ṁ288
2031
64%
Helped with >80% confidence
23%
Helped with >60% confidence
7%
Uncertain
5%
Harmed with >60% confidence
0.6%
Harmed with >80% confidence
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Relative to what counterfactual? Him turning down the op-ed opportunity?