Resolution criteria

The Brazilian presidential election will be held on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, 2026. This market resolves YES if the United States government issues an official congratulatory statement or message to Brazil's election winner within 24 hours of the winner being determined (either after the first round on October 4 or after a potential runoff on October 25). Resolution should be based on official statements from the U.S. State Department, White House, or the sitting U.S. President. The statement must explicitly congratulate the winner on their electoral victory.

Considerations

Brazil typically reports election results very quickly—often within hours after polls close. In 2022, the TSE began publishing results at 17:00 (Brasília time), and the outcome became clear the same evening (well before the final 100% totalization, which the TSE reported was completed at 00:18 the next day). The 24-hour clock in this market starts at the TSE’s first official indication of the winner, not at the final 100% totalization.

What counts as a qualifying “congratulatory message”:

A message that clearly congratulates the winner (e.g., “congratulations” / “congratulate” or an unambiguous equivalent) published as one of the following:

A) Official US government website statement:

- A public statement/release/readout published on whitehouse.gov (Statements & Releases), OR

- A public statement/release/readout published on state.gov (Press Statements / Releases / Spokesperson statements).

B) Trump social media post (counts even if not mirrored on a government site):

- A public post by Donald J. Trump from his official social account (e.g., his official Truth Social account and/or his official X account) that clearly congratulates the winner.