MANIFOLD
Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027
46
Ṁ10kṀ19k
2027
91%
At least 2,000
73%
At least 5,000
35%
At least 10,000
23%
At least 20,000

This resolves according to the readout the monthly tab for the active traders chart of the Manifold stats page at the end of 2027. An "active trader" is described as of market creation as

An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.

If that definition changes, I will do my best to either get an accurate number in the spirit of the original meaning, or N/A the market.

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It looks like this is currently at ~5600. So for the At least 2,000 to fail we would need activity to drop by almost 2/3. And for the 5000 we would just need to keep the same people around.

For those of you buying No on the 2,000 -- do you think the site will still exist or ?

@Eliza no one bought no, it just hasn’t been bought up yet

@Eliza

>For those of you buying No on the 2,000 -- do you think the site will still exist or ?

I do not think it will last very far into 2028, at the latest, so a serious decline in 2027 makes sense to me. The site's activity has recovered slightly, but I think it's a combination of a dead cat bounce, plus a flood of spambots.

Thanks for the market @BoltonBailey - I've added some liquidity here!

bought Ṁ250 NO

@shankypanky what's happened with the liquidity? 3 questions got none of it, and 1 got some, but only a small bit of it. Seems like most of the liquidity vanished, shouldn't have when odds are 50%. Most liquidity has finished drizzling in too

@Jack1 I think it worked, the pools all have thousands of yes/no shares and before subsidy they had like 20.

@Eliza yes It’s different now

Description says 2025.

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