If Jair Bolsonaro is condemned to prison, what set of charges will this be based on?

100Ṁ311

2027

Selling jewelry and other luxury gifts given to the Presidency under his term for his personal benefit

94%

Involvement with an attempted coup d'état after he lost the 2022 Elections and/or the 1/8/23 events

0.9%

Defrauding official COVID-19 vaccination records for him and his family members to travel to the USA

0.7%

Something pandemic-related (dissemination of fake news, encouraging people not to take protective measures, the Covaxin scandal etc)

0.6%

Interfering with the Federal Police for personal purposes

0.6%

Leaking information related to ongoing investigations of hacker attacks on the Electoral Justice

0.6%

Something related to an involvement with the paramilitary groups in Rio de Janeiro

0.7%

Something related to ghost employees or salary kickback schemes in his or his family's parliamentary cabinets

0.3%

Whale harassment

0.6%

Other

I will resolve to the first indictment that reaches a final judgment and includes a penalty of at least one day of closed or semi-open prison regime.
I'll not consider short-term ("preventative"/"temporary") arrests.
The actual prison mandate does not have to be fulfilled. E.g., I will resolve it to whatever generated the penalty even if he escapes the country, a popular uprising occurs, etc.
If no definitive prison penalty is declared by the closing date, I'll resolve the market as N/A.

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