Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?
5
1kṀ9122026
22%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Outside the country or in a foreign embassy which isn't under Brazilian jurisdiction counts, the means by which this is effected is immaterial for the purposes of the market.
At time of market creation Jair Bolsonaro is under 24 hour police watch as a flight risk.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Jair Bolsonaro arrested before December 31, 2025?
90% chance
Will Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
2% chance
When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?
Will Bolsonaro lose his political rights without being arrested?
16% chance
Jair Bolsonaro dies before 2030?
31% chance
Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?
6% chance
Will Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5% chance
Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?
85% chance
Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026?
5% chance