How many people will attend LessOnline 2025?

1kṀ4932

May 31

574 people

expected

ALL

0.5%

Below 200

0.9%

200 - 299

1.5%

300 - 399

20%

400 - 499

48%

500 - 599

16%

600 - 699

700 - 799

1.9%

800 - 899

900+

LessOnline is a weekend conference in Berkeley, California from Friday May 30th to Sunday June 1st, celebrating truthseeking and blogging, where writers and readers from the internet can come and talk in person.

Market resolves based on the total number of attendees, guests of honor, and children at LessOnline 2025. This will be based on the check-in at the front gate.

If there is no LessOnline, market resolves to "Below 200".

LessOnline

Blogs

LessWrong

Get

1,000

to start trading!

6 Comments

16 Holders

56 Trades

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Update: Last night LessOnline crossed 300 tickets sold.

(Sold! Counting ~50 volunteer tickets, but not counting free tickets to bloggers, staff, etc.)

bought Ṁ500 YES

did you know you can change reality by buying yes on markets?

It also helps to have noise-traders so that trading volume increases. Improves accuracy. So, thanks for your donation 😉

To be clear, my position is that it would be a mistake to have 900 people at Lighthaven at the same time, and people would be having a bad experience from overcrowding, so I am not likely to try to straightforwardly sell that many tickets. My guess is like 750 is pushing it.

@BenPace but buying YES makes NO shares cheaper, so it creates an incentive for somebody who can influence the outcome to buy cheap NO and make the market resolve that way, thus collecting sweet profit. So it seems like @Devansh also doesn't want 900 people to attend (or am I missing another layer to a joke or something)?

bought Ṁ50 YES

Data: so far we have sold ~100 tickets, plus confirmed ~30 free tickets for authors.

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