Claude Opus 4.5 released before 2026?

116

Ṁ1.1kṀ32k

resolved Nov 24

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Opus 4.6 or any other spiritual successor of Opus 4.1 would count for resolution.

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bought Ṁ200 YES

Interesting data point https://epoch.ai/data/ai-models?view=table

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 69% order

what?!?!?

https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-opus-45-tomorrow?r=amlt

bought Ṁ20 NO

Anyone want to bet more? I’m a No believer but this market is very illiquid

@Bayesian what are the best odds you would give me, out of curiosity?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BenAybar hmmm i'd do 65% right now

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 60% order

@Bayesian 1k limit order at 60%

what about opus 4.6?

@JoshYou any spiritual successor of opus 4.1, so yeah opus 4.6 would count

Related: https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-anthropic-release-claude-opus-gOOpU8PRlg

bought Ṁ15 YES

Apparently Anthropic is testing a model called Neptune V6. Neptune V4 was Opus 4.0

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Claude 5 released before March 31?

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+5% 1d9% chance

Will GPT-5.3-Codex have a longer time-horizon than Claude Opus 4.6?

+30% 1d81% chance

Will Opus 4.5 still be my daily driver on February 15th, 2026?

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Will o4 be released before 2027?

Related questions

Claude 5 released before March 31?

Will Claude Opus 5 be released in February 2026?

Will GPT-5.3-Codex have a longer time-horizon than Claude Opus 4.6?

Will Opus 4.5 still be my daily driver on February 15th, 2026?

Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?

Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Will o4 be released before 2027?

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