Unless otherwise specified, the options are about the state of OpenAI's latest video model at the end of 2025. Options about things that might happen before then, or by a specific date before then, are also acceptable.
I'll N/A duplicates and options I consider to not be valid. If an option refers to an external source, I encourage the option creator to notify me when/if the option should resolve.
For the purpose of this market, any Text-to-Video model released by OpenAI after Sora will count.
Some clarification:
"released" counts widespread public release OR widespread access to corporations, through partnerships or wtv else
the "Nth" model doesn't require release in the sense mentioned above. Sora is the 1st model, whether or not it ever gets "released". any new model announced after Sora for text-to-video counts as the 2nd model. and so on.
Update 2025-12-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "It will be free to use" will resolve based on Sora 2 (OpenAI's latest video generation model before end of year 2025), not the image generation feature or other components.
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@BobbyLee @Bayesian what about this AI generated video: https://youtu.be/Ap3ukbO_KZo?si=DUE5Id4kHF_lk0yg 2.2 M [oh sorry, my AIs hallucinate 2M, not 10M)
[delete]
searching with https://podscripts.co/podcasts/hard-fork with various keywords, i was unable to find an episode that both had a HatGPT segment and mentioned sora
@Bayesian best i could find, 101m views but doesn't say anything about the source beyond "Created with help from ChatGPT"
@Bayesian as there is no preffered definition for SOTA provided, does that mean the question should resolve to N/A?
According to all the reviews, Sora 2 is actually state-of-the-art for text-to-video generation.
It works perfectly from the text prompts and generates high-quality video, art.
@Areal also most of traders: https://manifold.markets/Pyra/will-a-transformer-based-model-be-s?r=QXJlYWw
buy shares of Sora 2 being a SOTA