Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before June 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below).
Resolution timing. Revenue disclosure cadence changes at IPO: pre-IPO, ARR figures leak ad-hoc through press; post-IPO, revenue arrives on a quarterly filing schedule with a ~40–45 day lag from quarter-end.
If Anthropic is still private at June 30, 2026: market resolves at close, based on figures published on or before June 30, 2026.
If Anthropic is public at June 30, 2026: market waits up to 45 days after June 30, 2026 for the quarter-ending 10-Q or earnings release, then resolves. Post-IPO quarterly revenue is annualized as quarterly × 4 and attributed to quarter-end. Earlier publications — including pre-IPO disclosures — still contribute to the peak.
Sources. Pre-IPO: credible reporting from The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or equivalent; official company announcements and fundraising disclosures. Post-IPO: 10-Q / 10-K filings and official earnings releases. A single credible report is sufficient to resolve a threshold YES if not contradicted by other reliable sources. Analyst estimates and rumors do not trigger resolution.
See also:
/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-annualized-revenu (this market)
/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-annualized-revenu-dslhhUg9Nc
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@Bayesian are you resolving based on SemiAnalysis' $44B? It's not a report based on company info, it's an analyst estimate. Or is there something this morning I missed?
@JoshYou yeah no i was resolving based on that and you make a good point and i will unresolve and clarify the description (edit: description was clear)
@JoshYou They say "reportedly". I've looked at it multiple times and it is still unclear to me if this is an analyst estimate or if they indeed have sourcing that they don't want to say
@JoshYou there's another, vague, report from TechCrunch a week ago
The company’s run rate is currently closer to $40 billion, one of the people with knowledge of the company’s financials said.
44B reported by SemiAnalysis https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/ai-value-capture-the-shift-to-model