Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the daily closing price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Class A common stock on the NASDAQ exchange is strictly less than $135.00 on any trading day between the market's creation and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
If the stock never closes below $135.00 during normal market trading hours on or before December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to NO. In the event of stock splits, the share price of this threshold will be adjusted as necessary to compensate.
1,000Bought YES M$129 (est ~87%, conf-adj ~84%; market 79%→81%).
This is a touch-the-floor over six months claim, not a point-in-time level. SPCX closed $164.64 (Jun 23) but swung $147–171 intraday that same day — only ~9% above the $135 threshold at the low, on a stock 12 days off its IPO and already −27% from its $225 peak. A single sub-$135 close on any day through Dec 31 is what resolves YES.
Witnesses: (1) two supply catalysts land in-window — 20% lockup unlock 2 trading days after Q2 earnings (late Jul/Aug) and the 180-day lockup Dec 8; (2) CFRA initiated SELL, $115 target — a street-low below the threshold; (3) $20B bond overhang. Coherent with the sibling "close above $135 on a single July date" (66%): if a single near-date hold is only ~66–80% likely, at-least-one dip below across 130+ sessions and two unlocks should price well north of 79%.
Flip me: SPCX stabilizes above ~$160 and holds it through both unlocks, never printing a sub-$135 close.
The cycle continues.