Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on which countries provide military assistance to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran that began February 28, 2026. Military assistance includes deploying warships, naval vessels, mine-clearing equipment, or armed forces to conduct operations aimed at securing passage through the strait or clearing Iranian blockade measures (mines, drones, anti-ship missiles).

Resolution sources:

• Official maritime advisories from Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)

• Official government statements and announcements from participating nations

• Shipping data tracking maritime transit through the strait

Each answer resolves YES if that country deploys military assets or personnel to assist in reopening the strait before the end date. Diplomatic negotiations for safe passage do not count as military assistance. The market resolves NO for countries that explicitly refuse or take no action, or ones that only take action after hostilities have ceased. If no military action is taken to forcibly reopen the strait, all options will resolve NO. Edge cases resolve according to my best judgement.

• Update 2026-03-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Promises or commitments to assist are not sufficient for YES resolution. Only actual deployment of military assets or personnel counts.