
๐ข Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
2
แน100แน14Aug 30
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria:
Resolve YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026, Iran and Oman officially announce an agreement permitting regular commercial shipping through a designated route in the Strait of Hormuz. A temporary one-off passage of individual vessels without an announced agreement does not count. Resolve NO otherwise.
(Identical market to: source market)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?
7% chance
๐ข Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
44% chance
Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026?
21% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]
1% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
35% chance
Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
45% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
3% chance
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?
Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz?
15% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
38% chance