Powell resigns if not re-appointed Fed chair? | Manifold

Powell resigns if not re-appointed Fed chair?

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Jun 15

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Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May 2026, but he has the option to remain on the board until January 2028. It is traditional for Fed chairs to resign after they are not re-appointed chair, but this would give Trump a chance to appoint another member of the board early. This market will resolve to YES if Jerome Powell resigns from the Fed board before a month has passed since his term as chair ended and NO otherwise. It will resolve to N/A if Powell is re-appointed Fed chair.

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Federal reserve

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bought Ṁ350 NO

@Arky resolves no https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/business/economy/powell-fed-stay-governor.html

@prismatic No, it doesn't. It's important to read market criteria carefully before betting.

@prismatic I’ll wait until the closing deadline to make sure he doesn’t change his mind. I agree that it does look very likely that this will resolve NO though

I see this as a very interesting market, not only is it a market on the mentality of Powell, but if Powell converts his resignation into a bargaining chip, the mentality of Trump.

People are also trading

Will Jerome Powell leave his role before the end of his term?

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Who will be the next chairman of the federal reserve board?

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

WIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Related questions

Will Jerome Powell leave his role before the end of his term?

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Who will be the next chairman of the federal reserve board?

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

WIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?