MANIFOLD
WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ362
2029
12%
chance

I'll search for relevant information about Jerome Powell and any potential legal issues.#### Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Jerome Powell is indicted and subsequently found guilty in a court of law on any criminal charges. This market resolves NO if Powell is indicted but acquitted, or if no indictment is issued. The resolution will be based on final court verdicts from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia or any appellate court with jurisdiction. Resolution sources: U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records).

Background

Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell related to grand jury subpoenas threatening a criminal indictment related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June concerning a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. Powell's sworn testimony on June 25, 2025 denied the inclusion of luxury features such as a VIP dining room, premium marble, water features, and a roof terrace garden in the controversial $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve's Eccles Building, though official project documents submitted to the National Capital Planning Commission directly contradict his statements. The US attorney's office in the District of Columbia is investigating whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the renovations, with Jeanine Pirro—appointed to run the office last year by President Donald Trump—approving the inquiry in November.

Considerations

The investigation represents an unprecedented effort to apply pressure on a central banker whom Trump initially appointed to the Fed chairmanship eight years ago—but whom he has pilloried since for not pushing interest rates lower. Powell's term as Fed chair ends in about four months. The political context and timing of the investigation may be relevant to how prosecutors and courts evaluate the evidence and charges.

Market context
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