Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.
Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.
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Traders, be careful not to buy YES on options you think WILL happen by EOY 2025! It's the opposite, so read the description carefully to understand which way you ought to bet to match your beliefs.
@SteveSokolowski Why is this one closed as N/A? @Agh unless it can be proven as true, it should resolve YES
@Soni Agreed, the maximum number of listens on SoundCloud is currently 4342: https://soundcloud.com/steve-sokolowski-2 So this can definitely resolve as YES, did not happen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Somaliland_relations
Probably most of the remaining answers can resolve YES, but Israel recently recognised Somaliland, so that one resolves NO.
@mods ^ Creator pinged a month ago and maybe inactive. I think these 4 can resolve no because they have happened.
Does “T will end DST” include “permanent DST”? Seems like people are a little vague about that, usually understanding “end DST” means just picking a standard and not switching clocks twice a year anymore. (A bit like the contradictory phrasing of this market, come to think of it :) )
I don’t personally think he’s gonna do anything, but voting out of hope.
“Evergrande's liquidation could take more than a decade to be completed, according to some offshore investors”: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/evergrande-liquidation-law-firm-probing-pwc-others-potential-claims-sources-say-2024-06-14/
I don't think this will happen while the war is still ongoing, and I don't think Putin would willingly accept a peace deal without some promise that Ukraine won't join NATO.
So this can only happen if Ukraine is convincingly winning the war, and that will require a long slog at best. It won't happen this year unless Russia's economy suddenly collapses somehow.
@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market