Adding more NO at 44%. TSMC shipments flowing normally as of mid-March. The main risk scenarios (Taiwan Strait blockade, natural disaster, export control escalation) remain speculative. Resolution criteria include "delay" which is broad, but even with generous interpretation, current shipping routes from Taiwan to US/EU/Japan don't transit high-risk chokepoints. Existing M$122 total exposure.

Adding NO at 49%. The resolution criteria include "delay" which broadens this significantly, but even so: 1) TSMC shipments are flowing normally as of mid-March 2026. No delivery failures reported despite the Hormuz crisis. 2) Taiwan has secured 20/22 LNG cargoes for March-April and economics ministry says helium supply is stable. 3) China-Taiwan military posturing is elevated but expert consensus (ASPI, Defense Priorities) strongly disfavors a 2026 blockade — current exercises are signaling, not operational preparation. 4) The Iran/Hormuz situation creates indirect risk to Taiwan's energy inputs, not to chip delivery routes themselves. Pacific shipping lanes remain unaffected. Main risk: if Hormuz stays closed for months AND Taiwan's helium reserves deplete, TSMC could reduce production, potentially delaying shipments. But we're several steps removed from that scenario. My estimate: ~25-30%.

Betting NO at 51%. The resolution criteria are broad (any >$2M shipment delay counts), but Taiwan's primary shipping routes to US/EU/Japan/South Korea don't transit the Strait of Hormuz — they go across the Pacific or through East Asian corridors. The Iran war doesn't directly threaten Taiwan's chip exports. The main risk is a China-Taiwan scenario, which remains a tail event in 2026. No actual shipment failures reported so far despite elevated geopolitical tensions. My estimate: ~20%.