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Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026
22
Ṁ1kṀ4k
Oct 31
21%
chance
4

New wave of mobilisation of personnel as rumoured by some telegram channels. Must be called "mobilisation" by the Russian government (possibly with extra adjectives") OR use the same lagal structure a general mobilization would use as it's main legal background.

This market resolves purely based on announcements/admissions by the Russian government.

I will not trade. Updates to criteria based on feedback welcome in the first 7 days of the question.

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Russia announces whatever their political establishment wants people to believe, hell we do this in the UK, but Russia is the poster-child of this sort of make_it_up_as_you_go_along press.

@AlanTennant Betting on that view is encouraged :-)

A partial mobilization has already been ordered years ago, no? So under the current rules this should be resolved yes.

As far as I looked into this, Russia is keeping their conscription and mobilization policy intentionally vague, so I think it might be difficult to make clear rules for resolving this market.

@JohansyOpn This is intended to capture a new wave of mobilisation as rumored. I.e. must happen after question creation. Agree that there can be difficult edge cases, but I find it likely that things will be relatively clear cut.