This market resolves YES if Elon Musk ends up making more money from his purchase of Twitter than he would have by investing the same money in the NASDAQ, counting from when he made the initial offer to buy Twitter on April 14th.

This market will remain open until Elon Musk exits his ownership of Twitter, whether by IPO, acquisition, or otherwise. This market resolves YES if and only if the ratio of the Twitter's valuation at the time of that exit to its valuation in Musk's initial offer ($41.39 billion) is greater than the ratio of the close price of the Nasdaq Composite index (ticker ^IXIC) on the day of the exit to the close price on April 14th (13,351.08).

I'll count it as an exit if Musk sells most of his Twitter holdings, even if he keeps a minority stake. If Twitter goes public again, I'll look to its valuation at the end of its first day of trading. This market reslives if there's an IPO—Musk doesn't need to sell his shares.

• Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

  • Post-merger Valuation: After the merger, the value attributed to Musk’s Twitter acquisition will be 33/113 of the combined Twitter/xAI entity.

  • Exit Event Resolution: The market will resolve only when Elon Musk exits his ownership, which includes an exit if the merged company goes public.

  • Valuation Attribution: At the time of exit, 33/113 of the merged entity’s valuation will be used to determine the return on Musk’s Twitter acquisition.