Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to the option corresponding to the semiconductor node used to fabricate the CPU cores of the first AMD Zen 6 desktop processor. If AMD does not release any Zen 6–based desktop CPU by January 01, 2028 (0:00 CET), the market resolves to N/A.
I will add additional answers if needed.
Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is adding a TSMC 2nm other option to accommodate cases where AMD uses a 2nm node that doesn't fit the specific existing options (e.g., customized 2nm nodes or when only "2nm" is reported without specifics).
The creator will not make any bets on this market for 48 hours to avoid unfair advantage after adding this new option.
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@creator How would this resolve if the only information we have a month after the release is AMD saying it uses a "2nm" node?
@adonisds How would it resolve if someone reports it uses a 2nm node customized for AMD?
@winged_one I think it could have been better to have this 2nm option in the start, but right now, to not disrupt the market, I think these cases should resolve as N2. N2 is being used both as the name of a specific node and also to refer to the whole family of 2nm nodes. what do you think?
@adonisds It also makes this option consistent with the N3 option, since N3 doesn't refer to a specific node (it's called N3B), only to a family of nodes
@adonisds the original Intension was to be specific (didn't know the original N3 was called N3B). I'm adding TSMC 2nm other option. Since only you and me have bets on other or any 2nm Options (Not that much to disrupt). I will not making any more bets on this Market for 48h so I don't get an unfair advantage.