How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?
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1kṀ18362028
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The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome. As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia. These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force. (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact )
On election day 2028, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves to: (the number of votes controlled at resolution time minus the number of votes at market open (195)) divided by (the number of votes required to activate the compact minus the number of votes at market open (195)). This effectively calculates the progress made towards activation, such that moderate progress is still calculated and rewarded.
See the 2024 version of this question here: https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/will-the-national-popular-vote-inte
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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