Would you describe the war in ukraine as a civil war? Since ukrainian donbas separatists are involved.

@Sqeedee I've despaired of creating any coherent definition and, if in doubt, intend to check any candidates in wikipedia and Western media to see how they describe it.

@wadimiusz Understandable to rely on media judgments. But then the question becomes, what media? American media or European media or both? And does one or two suffice or a critical mass of media have to use the phrase 'civil war'?

Head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov declared blood feud against senator Suleyman Kerimov who represents Dagestan in the Federation Council.

Anyone feels like buying this up?

@wadimiusz I don't think it changes the odds of this market much, but you could make a new one about popcorn prices...

Update: after discussion with @PS, I decided that if an edge case arises, I will check Wikipedia and Western media and see if they consistently describe the conflict in question as a civil war. Also, if in doubt, I may or may not temporarily freeze the market and consult the traders, and/or resolve N/A.

Would the Chechen wars count?
How about the Serbia-Slovenia war?

@a2bb Man, I don't know. I'd definitely invite the traders to discuss any edge cases, perhaps resolve N/A if the resolution wasn't obvious. I don't think the Chechen wars are usually described as civil wars, for some reason. As for the latter, are you referring to the ten-day war?

@wadimiusz Yes, that one.

@a2bb Interesting edgecase. Also dunno. I think the ten-day war itself is also not usually described as a civil war? So I lean towards no in this case as well.

Some part of Russia declaring independence and an independence war breaking out is definitely a possibility. I think I'd have to freeze the market and discuss with traders.

@wadimiusz I know I'm a bit late to this thread, but I think it's better to do the discussion beforehand, since the edge cases make a big difference to the probability. Apart from the question of whether an independence war would count, there's also the question of whether and when something like an insurgency would be a civil war (I assume Wagner wouldn't have counted).

You could either try to define at least approximate criteria, or try to go with something like "if Wikipedia/Western media consistently describe it as a civil war"

@PS the "wikipedia / western media" thing seems like a good idea...