By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ105resolved Jan 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the following:
Agentic coding models will count towards a YES resolution, in addition to the initially considered personal assistant models.
The market will resolve YES if the creator's usage is frequent enough, based on their personal judgment.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ44 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 |
Sort by:
General update: I currently make occasional use of agentic coding models. When I made this market I was thinking more about personal assistant models, but I do think they count. I don't think I use them enough to resolve this market YES right now, but given that we still have six months to market close I think it's pretty likely this ends up resolving YES.
People are also trading
Related questions
Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?
What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?
18% chance
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
73% chance
Before 2028, will there be a major self-improving AI policy*?
74% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
27% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
6% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
49% chance
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
35% chance