MANIFOLD
Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?
40
Ṁ1kṀ14k
resolved Jan 22
Resolved
NO

Inspired by this tweet:

(https://x.com/BasedBeffJezos/status/1890771749727248794)

Help predict whether Extropic AI will successfully deliver "functional silicon thermodynamic chips to customers in 2025." Resolution will be based on public announcements from Extropic AI or credible sources confirming actual shipment of working chips to customers.

For a positive resolution the chips shipped must be actual thermodynamic chips, and not say digital emulation dev kits using FPGAs.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ2,361
2Ṁ590
3Ṁ528
4Ṁ440
5Ṁ435
Sort by:

@mods This should be resolved to "no".

@traders @vernalpool has this happened?

@Bayesian I see no relevant news on Extropic's X feed or the blog on their website.

@Gen This is sadly still a research platform/prototype. You can't buy it as a customer. From their website:

"We are shipping a limited number of units to various researchers, tinkerers, and startups. We look forward to seeing what sort of fun demonstrations and algorithms the community of early access users will create."

https://extropic.ai/writing/inside-x0-and-xtr-0

Their actual production chip is Z1 and it was pushed back to 2026.

bought Ṁ250 NO

Ya... I mean... there's a reason their testing module is shipping with two chips in it, one "thermodynamic" one and one conventional chip.

based on gut instinct alone this market should be at 0%

Update:

Update:

Beff promises something in the coming weeks.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy