Background On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order affecting birthright citizenship in the United States. The order states that children born to parents who are either unlawfully present or on temporary visas (such as H-1B, F-1, L-1) will not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if neither parent is a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident. This policy takes effect on February 19, 2025.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if at least one child is born in the United States during 2025 and is officially denied automatic citizenship under the executive order. The market will resolve NO if either:
The executive order is blocked, overturned, or otherwise does not take effect
No children are born in 2025 who are denied automatic citizenship under the order
Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Exclusion of Children of Diplomats:
Children born to diplomats will be excluded from the pool of subjects for this market.
This exclusion applies when considering whether a child is officially denied automatic citizenship under the executive order.
1,000@Balasar Good point - yes, let's keep with the spirit of the market, and exclude children of diplomats.