
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump, upon taking office as President in 2025, issues an executive order or similar directive banning transgender individuals from serving in the US military within his first 24 hours as president. Market resolves NO if no such ban is instituted within the first 24 hours.
Resolution criteria: Official White House announcements, executive orders, or Department of Defense directives issued within the first 24 hours of Trump taking office.
Sources: https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/11/25/donald-trump-transgender-military/ https://economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-plans-deadly-move-against-transgenders-serving-in-the-us-military-on-first-day-of-his-office-check-details/articleshow/115656318.cms
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@skibidist “Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the immediate impact of Trump’s Monday executive order rescinding Biden’s executive actions. It clears the way for banning transgender people from military service”
@typeofemale see also your twitter replies, but it looks like current active policy is the 2018 memorandum
this was interpreted by the DOD as a default ban
I'm not 100% sure of the interpretation, but I think Trump's revocation of Biden's executive order 14004 may have had the effect of restoring Trump's previous ban. See https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/initial-rescissions-of-harmful-executive-orders-and-actions/ and https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14004-enabling-all-qualified-americans-serve-their-country-uniform
@typeofemale I have not seen a definitive statement. I was just reading through the list of Biden EOs being revoked and noticed this one as likely significant but I don't have enough expertise on the previous EOs and other regulations to make a good judgment without studying it much more carefully as to whether the repeal of the Biden EO has the effect of bringing back the previous ban.
Trump expressed intention to do this on his first day, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241223-trump-vows-to-stop-transgender-lunacy-as-a-top-priority
Another article about this: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-reported-transgender-military-plan-called-out-charity-1991052
@CraigDemel feeling some strong indications that the leak was a trial balloon from this article ngl

