Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

MANIFOLD

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Dec 31

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Update 2025-08-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Must involve human clinical trials.
- An FDA expedited approval for a surgery-based Alzheimer's treatment will also count.

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What would constitute a mainstream Western scientist and what kind of initial research are we talking about? A phase 1 clinical trial? A mouse model? What counts as success? Operation went well and no major safety issues? Slowing of the disease progression by X%? Reversal of symptoms?

I see @typeofemale clarified that a mouse model (or any non-primate model) wouldn’t count. But I don’t see clarification on whether it needs to be a clinical trial (i.e. involve humans) or whether preclinical research on primates count. And the other questions remain too.

@dsj clinical trials yeah but if the FDA gives expedited approval i can live with it

@typeofemale Thanks. What are your thoughts on the other questions?

https://manifold.markets/Mactuary/is-chinas-lva-surgery-a-legitimate related market

Is China’s LVA Surgery a legitimate treatment for Alzheimer’s?

44% chance. https://x.com/chenkojira/status/1859658593588613336 This market will resolve YES if, by December 31, 2025, at least one independent, peer-reviewed study corroborates the efficacy of deep cervical lymphatic-venous anastomosis (LVA surgery) for treating Alzheimer’s disease. The study must be conducted by a separate research group from the original claims and published in a high-impact, peer-reviewed scientific journal (e.g., Nature, The Lancet, or JAMA). The market will resolve NO on Dec 31, 2025 if no such corroborating evidence is available or sooner if significant evidence emerges that discredits the original claims.

Does it have to be a human in a clinical trial or do non-human primates count?

@TheRealTrolly I don't think non-primate clinical trials count no?

@typeofemale For me it is a bit unclear what "initially successful research" means. Does it need to be the result of an FDA registered first phase clinical trial?