According to the NYT's reporting as of November 2024, transit officials expect the current tolls ($9 to enter Lower Manhattan and Midtown, with various discounts) to bring in "about $500 million a year" before rising to $12 per entry/$700 million per year in 2028 and $15 per entry/$1 billion per year (the original proposal) in 2031. How much will available public reporting as of April 1, 2026, (as judged by me) say was raised by congestion pricing in 2025? (If precise statistics are available earlier, I may resolve the question as early as January 1, 2026.)
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on gross revenue (before expenses), not net revenue after expenses. This is consistent with the pre-expense numbers posted by the creator in January and February updates.
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Over 700 Million Gross and over 550 Million Net
@ShaneBo Where are you getting "over" 700 million gross? I'm just seeing "some 700 million." The MTA data here only goes through October; it's over $700m only if November and December averaged >$63m, which is near the higher end of the monthly totals so far.
@trevor the spreadsheet the article was built off of shows this. The spreadsheet takes official data sources for vehicle traffic separated by type into the toll zone and is regularly updated. However it does not account for costs for which you would need to count upon the MTAs official report to get the final net revenue.
Outside of that source: The official number from the Governor's office is 518 net through November. Meaning another 50 million net increase from the 468 million listed in the up to October report. Which would put it among the highest earning months of the year. The MTA officially reports 65.6 million in gross revenue. Lost the link to that portal on MTA's website but is noted in this source:
https://abc7ny.com/post/nyc-congestion-pricing-results-year-later-has-toll-been-success/18331318/
This puts the total gross at $638.77 million, and a requirement to raise about 61.23 million in December
Given that November and December are typically the busiest months for vehicle traffic each year(tolls muted some by a large portion of that being cheaper toll ubers/taxis). With December being the busiest. It would seem likely without even looking at the numbers that you could expect similar NOV numbers for DEC.
Other reports show an increase in holiday traffic by 3% YOY. Given last years official MTA reports that suggested 62.7 million would have been raised by tolls in December. We could assume there should be a toll earnings of 64.6 million in December of this year by that 3% raise in overall traffic.
This all tracks with the spreadsheet estimates, which are showing slightly lower than 64.6 million
All said I think it's fair to wait until an official MTA report to finalize the market. I shared those numbers more as a favor to other bettors and to inform my own bet where I was still hedging for the net versus gross resolution.
What to make of ”after expenses” for the purpose of this market?
@Mmmmm I'd assume that the by "raised" the question refers to usable funds that can be applied to other capital improvement projects., so we would go with the net after expenses. As opposed to how much "revenue did the toll generate" which I would think applies to gross. But pretty ambiguous
@trevor needs to clarify this but I found it pretty unambiguous that it was gross since the numbers he posted for January and February below are both pre-expenses.
@HenryR and @ShaneBo - thanks for tagging, agree that it's ambiguous in the original question wording but think my posting the pre-expense numbers in Jan and Feb do suggest gross, so I'll resolve accordingly. (Another advantage of gross is that it's less sensitive to the specifics of how expenses are accounted for etc.)
$48.6M in the first month would be ~$583M annually, though unclear whether it survives the recent federal challenge.