
In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?
12
1kṀ3892031
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Ambiguous cases will be determined by Scott Alexander's judgement. Blogs that Scott Alexander is unsure about won't be counted either way.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which blog posts will get more likes on my Substack in 2025?
How many Substack posts will I publish in 2025?
Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?
53% chance
By 2026 will Substack generally be viewed in a similar way to medium.com
38% chance
Will my substack reach 100 subscribers by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will Substack publications have at least 5 million paid subscribers by 2025?
31% chance
Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?
49% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
80% chance
Will AI generated content be ~50% or more of content creation on major social media platforms in 2025?
16% chance
Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???
35% chance