Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if at least one athlete competes in an official Olympic race event (any distance, any event type) on all four limbs and completes the race before 01.01.2040. The athlete must be competing in a standard Olympic track and field race, not a separate exhibition or demonstration event. Resolution will be verified through official Olympic records and broadcast footage.

Background

Quadrupedal running records exist, with one "monkey runner" breaking the Guinness world record for the 100-m sprint on November 12, 2015, with a time of 15.71 seconds. Academic projections suggest that quadrupedal running times could theoretically become faster than bipedal times by 2048. This is due to a higher percentage of time where a limb touches the ground, enabling acceleration (e.g. Cheetah - quadrupedal - >70% ground contact vs. Usain Bolt - bipedal - ~43% ground contact) However, Olympic distance running rules currently prohibit hands from touching the ground at the start, and runners may not touch the ground with their hands during the start in middle and long distance races. No explicit rule currently bans quadrupedal running throughout an entire race, but this would require a significant rule change or interpretation by World Athletics, the sport's governing body.

I will not trade in this market.