Adjusted for inflation from the market create date.
Update 2025-10-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): EU loans backed by frozen Russian assets do not count as reparations for this market. The creator clarified that the EU's plan to give Ukraine a zero-interest loan using frozen Russian assets as collateral does not qualify, since:
It is a loan from a third party (the EU), not a payment from Russia
Russia has not agreed to forfeit the assets as reparations
The frozen assets may need to be returned to Russia if not forfeited as part of a future agreement
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Meowdy! This one’s a straightforward NO for me. The market creator has made it crystal clear: Russia must be part of the agreement or treaty for it to count as “reparations,” and third-party loans or asset seizures without Russian sign-off do not qualify. The EU’s maneuvering with frozen assets is specifically excluded. Given the current geopolitical climate, it’s extremely unlikely Russia will voluntarily agree to a $1bn reparations payment to Ukraine by 2026. Even if Western governments forcibly use seized Russian funds, without explicit Russian agreement, the market will resolve NO. Probability feels a bit above 3%, maybe 5% if you squint and imagine a wild diplomatic breakthrough, but I'm very confident in a NO resolution.
places 90 mana limit order on NO for NO at 5%
@theservy this counts right? Russian assets used directly and officially as reparations payments to Ukraine, just without the consent of the current Russian regime
@Dulaman I don't think it counts.
As I understand from the article, the EU intends to give a zero-interest loan to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. When the war ends, the Russian government may agree to forfeit the frozen assets as reparations, or it may not. If it does not, the EU would have to repay the currently frozen amounts back to Russia and either expect Ukraine to pay back the loan or forgive the loan and make the EU taxpayers pay for it.
Currently, this scheme seems like a loan from a third-party (the EU) that may at some future time be repaid with money from reparations, and not an instance of Russia paying reparations.
@theservy I think it's somewhat of a charade to disguise the fact that they're very simply taking Russia's frozen sovereign assets and giving them to Ukraine. They just want to make it look "legal" through the use of various loopholes and avoid other countries withdrawing their sovereign assets. But yeah fair enough for this market's criteria. Maybe there needs to be some more detail in the description given the current direction of travel?
@MartinRandall If the Russian government was not part of the agreement/treaty that established that, I would resolve No.
In case there is some (pretty unlikely as of today) agreement/treaty that involves Russian seized assets to be partially or fully used for reparations (or returned under Russian control conditional on paying reparations and some other guarantees), and Russia signs it, and Ukraine ends up getting the money then I would resolve Yes.